Coffee Market Ends the Week with Arabica Up and Robusta Down Amid Close Watch on Brazil’s New Harvest

The international coffee market ended Friday (May 9) with contrasting trends on major exchanges: arabica posted gains, while robusta saw moderate declines. The rise in arabica was primarily driven by a weaker dollar, which typically boosts commodity prices. However, gains were capped by expectations of increased global supply, especially after the USDA projected a 5.1% rise in Honduras’ coffee production — the largest arabica producer in Central America — for the 2025/26 season.

In Brazil, the outlook remains uncertain as the harvest begins, particularly for arabica. Andrea Illy, president of illycaffè, noted that despite expectations of a smaller crop, April rains may have mitigated damage caused by a February dry spell. Still, concerns linger over quality, especially with the potential increase in “floaters” — underdeveloped beans — which could reach 12% of the crop, a significant deviation from the usual 1% in good harvests.

In the domestic market, the arrival of the new crop is already pressuring prices, with buyers pushing for lower values while producers hold back supply, awaiting better market conditions. Activity in monitored regions was limited, with small gains for type 6 arabica in Machado/MG and Franca/SP, and stable prices for pulped cherries. The market remains cautious, closely monitoring the pace of the harvest and how demand evolves in the coming weeks.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas