Coffee Market Starts the Week with Strong Gains Amid Supply Concerns and Speculative Appetite

The coffee market began the week with significant price increases, driven by structural and speculative factors. Arabica coffee hit new record highs for near-term contracts on the New York Stock Exchange, with the March/25 contract rising 6.15% to close at 429.05 cents/lb. According to Vicente Zotti from Pine Agronegócios, the sharp 31% rise in arabica futures at the start of 2025 lacks clear fundamentals but is supported by resilient consumption and exports, along with strong speculative investor interest. Another key factor is the historically low level of certified stocks, which have reached their lowest point since 2013, reinforcing concerns about limited supply.

The robusta market also followed the upward trend, with substantial gains in futures contracts in London. The March/25 contract increased by $110 per ton, while the May/25 contract rose by $133 per ton, reflecting strong demand for the bean. However, crop projections from Hedgepoint suggest a mixed outlook for the future: while arabica production was revised downward to an estimated 41.1 million bags for 25/26, robusta production was revised upward to 23 million bags. This contrasting trend between the two varieties could shape the market in the coming months, with arabica maintaining high price levels and robusta presenting a more balanced scenario.

In Brazil, the physical market mirrored international gains, with arabica type 6 prices rising up to 3.64%, reaching R$ 2,850.00 per bag in Franca/SP. The peeled cherry variety also saw notable gains, with Campos Gerais/MG standing out as prices climbed to R$ 2,840.00 per bag, a 3.46% increase. However, the domestic industry is struggling to absorb the high prices, purchasing only what is necessary for restocking. The limited supply and high international prices suggest that the bullish trend may persist in the short term, especially for arabica. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Alta do café deve continuar diante de posições especulativas, demanda e... - Notícias Agrícolas