Demand for coffee in destinations: European Union; check out hEDGEpoint report

In the European Union (EU) coffee market, an analysis of the data reveals intriguing trends and factors shaping the industry: at the end of June, coffee stocks in the EU totaled 11.56M scs, showing a significant change of 12.6 % below average. Surprisingly, there was a monthly inventory increase of 3.7%, slightly above the expected seasonal change of 2.1%.

In June, the EU imported 3.74M scs of green coffee, marking a difference of -9% compared to the previous year. Import numbers also decreased by 8% compared to the previous month, slightly exceeding the expected seasonal decline of -2%. Despite these fluctuations, the EU remains the world's leading importer of coffee.

For the 2022-2023 coffee cycle, cumulative imports through June totaled 34.9M scs, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of -4.1%. However, these numbers fall short of estimates of 36.5M scs, resulting in a variation of -4.5%. This difference can be attributed to a demand rate slightly higher than expectations, leading to a -15% variation in stocks, despite a -4% variation in imports.

Apparent consumption, consolidated from October 2022 to June 2023, reached 34.5 million bags, indicating a positive increase of 3% compared to the previous year. This exceeds estimates of 33.6 million bags by 2%. It is important to note that the apparent consumption metric disregards re-exported coffee, which decreased until April, but then recovered.

The reduction in total stocks in the EU may be related to the rising cost of money, driven by high interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) recently raised interest rates, but market sentiment suggests possible future cuts as the economy weakens.

Overall, the EU coffee market presents a complex picture. Despite some unexpected fluctuations, demand exceeded projections, leading to lower inventories. This balance is expected to continue through September, with market participants closely monitoring economic developments and interest rate policies.

Source: hEDGEpoint | Via Noticias Agrícolas