Intense heat at the end of the Brazilian winter raises fears for the 2024 coffee harvest

A strong heat wave spreading across most of Brazil this week, amid the final days of winter in the Southern Hemisphere, is raising concerns among farmers and agronomists about the condition of coffee plantations in the world's largest producer and exporter, as well as the impacts for the 2024 harvest.

Meteorologists predict temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius in many producing regions of Brazil this week, with no rain expected until almost the end of the month.

The extreme heat for this period of the year could negatively affect coffee plantations that had an early flowering, reducing production potential for next year's harvest, according to experts.

"Arabica coffee plants are sensitive to temperatures above 33 degrees Celsius during the reproductive phase," said agronomist Jonas Ferraresso, who provides consultancy to coffee farms in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the two largest producing states in Brazil.

He said the flowers can feel the heat and not develop into fruit.

Ferraresso and other agronomists, however, said that this is just the first occurrence of flowering in Brazil, and that more important ones are expected in early October, if the rains return.

"Impact, something always has, but it's not something immediate. The plant's processes don't happen from one day to the next, and evaluation also can't be done from one day to the next", said José Braz Matiello, researcher at the fund of Funcafé research.

He said the heat itself wouldn't be such a big problem if the rains returned soon, but it could be a bigger threat if the dry spell continued.

"Small damage may be caused to the tree, branch tips, lower elevation areas, non-irrigated areas..." he said. "One thing leads to another, with high temperatures, the plant dehydrates faster."

Grain producers in Brazil are also facing difficulties with the start of soybean planting due to the weather.

Jim Roemer, editor of the WeatherWealth newsletter at bestweatherinc.com, said temperatures in some coffee areas in Brazil will be up to 6 degrees Celsius warmer than normal for this season.

"There is a bit of concern in the coffee market," he said.

For agronomist Adriano Rabelo de Rezende, technical coordinator of the Minasul cooperative, the crops have blossomed and taken root, with many already bearing "chumbinhos" (small fruits).

"So, if this heat persists, there may be losses. Because temperatures above 34, 35 degrees, pellets cannot resist, and egg yolks can also dehydrate and not become coffee."

He also considered that everything will depend on the number of days that the intense heat will persist. "The longer the dry and hot weather, the worse."

Source: Reuters | Via Investing