Adverse Weather and Low Stocks Keep Prices High on International Exchanges

The international coffee market closed Wednesday (16) with sustained prices and new gains, primarily reflecting adverse weather conditions in Brazil. Low rainfall, especially in Minas Gerais, has raised concerns about the productivity of the upcoming 2025 crop, adding to the bullish momentum. According to Climatempo data, rainfall levels were 11% below the historical average in the region. Combined with the scarcity of coffee stocks, this reinforces the perception of a tight supply scenario. Vicente Zotti from Pine Agronegócios highlights that conilon stocks are virtually depleted and arabica stocks are significantly low, marking the lowest level in the sector’s historical record.

Robusta prices continue to be pressured by a drop in exports observed since December 2024, according to Cepea. The limited domestic availability of this variety has constrained shipments, while expectations now turn to the start of the harvest in Espírito Santo, set to begin in April and intensify in May. The arrival of the new crop may temporarily ease supply and revive exports in the second half of the year. Until then, however, tight supply concerns continue to drive short-term price movements, especially in the futures market.

In the domestic market, prices followed the international upward trend, but activity remains subdued. According to a report from Escritório Carvalhaes, the volume of coffee from the 2024 crop still held by producers is historically low, and many are reluctant to sell at current price levels. Arabica type 6 saw gains in regions like Maringá, Franca, and Guaxupé, while the peeled cherry variety showed price changes only in Guaxupé. The combination of tight supply, rising exchange prices, and producer caution is keeping the domestic market firm, though trading volume remains moderate. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Café: Preocupação com a produtividade da safra/25 faz preços fecharem sessão... - Notícias Agrícolas