Arabica Coffee Rises in NY Amid Climatic Support and Caution in the Brazilian Domestic Market

The Monday (May 5th) session brought significant gains for arabica coffee on the New York Stock Exchange, with futures contracts showing strong increases across all analyzed maturities. This upward movement reflects a combination of recent favorable weather conditions — such as April rains in some producing regions — and growing concerns about the profitability of the 2025 harvest, which already shows signs of potential crop loss. While short-term climate conditions are supporting fruit development, medium-term projections remain a source of uncertainty for the market.

Analyst Haroldo Bonfá emphasizes that the volume of processed Brazilian conilon will be a key factor in price formation over the coming months, especially until the arabica harvest fully begins. Meanwhile, the international market remains focused on the delicate balance between supply and demand, with high sensitivity to weather data and yield expectations. The absence of trading on the London Exchange due to the “Early May Bank Holiday” limited tracking of robusta prices, but the spotlight remained firmly on arabica.

In Brazil’s domestic market, prices fluctuated in a mixed pattern. While some regions such as Guaxupé and Poços de Caldas experienced price increases, others like Franca and Rio Grande do Sul saw declines. Bonfá notes that most producers are financially stable and cautious, which is limiting market liquidity even with the arrival of the new crop. This behavior highlights a sluggish pace in physical trading, where shifts in international pricing don’t always translate immediately to local market dynamics.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas