Arabica Rises While Robusta Falls Amid Harvest Projections and Global Volatility

The international coffee market showed divergent behavior this Tuesday (22), with arabica gaining significantly while robusta fell on international exchanges. The appreciation of arabica was mainly driven by the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the dollar, which reduces the attractiveness of Brazilian exports and supports international prices. Meanwhile, robusta was pressured by technical factors and hit its lowest level in a week. Data released by Rabobank, particularly the projected 6.4% drop in the 2025/26 harvest, also contributed to the optimism surrounding arabica, which saw notable increases across all contract maturities.

Rabobank’s report reinforced the perception of a still tight market, with low stock levels and limited global supply, worsened by unfavorable weather conditions and logistical uncertainties such as the Red Sea conflicts. The forecast for a sharp decline in arabica production, especially due to drought affecting flower set, highlights the global deficit scenario. On the other hand, robusta is expected to reach record production levels, helping to partially balance the global outlook. Still, analyst Marcelo Fraga Moreira warns that stock levels remain critically low, and a market rebalance is unlikely until around the 2028/29 crop year—assuming Brazil resumes producing over 70 million bags.

In the Brazilian domestic market, coffee prices showed mixed results, reflecting external fluctuations and cautious producer sentiment. While some regions registered significant gains, such as Espírito Santo do Pinhal and Poços de Caldas, others saw declines, particularly in Araguari and Franca. The market remains selective in negotiations, influenced by the perception of a volatile international environment and expectations of a more limited upcoming harvest. Regional disparities also highlight the complexity of the current scenario, with producers closely monitoring both global movements and local dynamics. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Café: Estimativa de crescimento de 7,3% da safra/25 do robusta consolida... - Notícias Agrícolas