Climatic Impacts Drive Prices: Arabica Rises and Robusta Soars Due to Vietnam's Drought

The recent update on the delayed arrival of rains in Brazil, expected only in the second half of October due to the formation of La Niña, has directly impacted the coffee market. Arabica prices saw a slight increase of 0.37%, reflecting concerns over potential climate issues that could affect the crop. The December 2024 contract rose by 90 points, closing at 243.00 cents/lbp, with March and May 2025 contracts also registering gains. This price movement is in response to the delayed rains, which may hinder crop development and reduce the future supply of arabica coffee.

Conversely, the robusta market experienced a more significant rise, with increases of up to 4.29%, driven by fears of drought in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. The rise in robusta prices reflects global concern over a potential drop in production due to adverse weather conditions. The November 2024 contract recorded a $202 increase, settling at $4,718/ton. This scenario suggests that while arabica prices are rising, robusta is more directly affected by climatic problems, particularly in Southeast Asia.

In the domestic market, coffee prices remain relatively stable, indicating caution among producers amid uncertainty about the 2025 crop's productivity. While Type 6 arabica showed only a slight variation in Machado/MG, with a 0.71% increase, the market for Pulped Natural coffee closed the day without changes in key producing regions. This price stability suggests that although climate concerns are valid, the Brazilian internal market is still waiting for more concrete information on the final impact of weather conditions before making more substantial selling decisions.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas