Coffee Market: Arabica Rises, Robusta Under Pressure, and Climate Expectations in Focus

The coffee market showed mixed movements in this session, with arabica closing higher due to support from a weaker dollar, while robusta remained under pressure from projections of increased global supply. According to Marex Solutions, Vietnam’s production is expected to grow by 7.9% in 2025/26, while Brazil’s output could rise by 13.6%, factors that weigh on robusta prices. Additionally, supply constraints in Vietnam and Indonesia, where producers are holding back sales in search of better prices, add volatility to the market. However, uncertainty about the climate’s impact on the next Brazilian crop remains a key factor to monitor.

The Brazilian physical market remains sluggish, with limited supply available during the off-season and sellers engaging only in selective negotiations. Sales volumes are still below the necessary levels to meet domestic consumption and export demand, as noted by the Carvalhaes Office. However, arabica type 6 prices registered strong gains in several producing regions, with Machado/MG showing the highest increase (+4.10%). Pulped natural coffee also appreciated in Campos Gerais/MG (+1.16%) and Poços de Caldas/MG (+0.75%), reflecting a cautious market awaiting the new harvest.

Climate impact remains a crucial factor for the sector, with the need to closely monitor rainfall in the coming days. According to Pine Agronegócios, there are already signs of reduced production potential due to the formation of floral buds, but the extent of this impact cannot yet be determined. Meanwhile, forecasts point to more widespread rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-producing regions next week, which could influence supply expectations for the 2025/26 crop. The combination of climate factors, uncertain global demand, and producer behavior makes the coffee market highly volatile in the short term. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Preços do café fecham sessão de 6ª feira (28) em lados opostos nas bolsas... - Notícias Agrícolas