Coffee Market on the Rise and Challenges Amid Structural Changes

The coffee market experienced an intense week of appreciation, reflecting ongoing concerns about global supply, especially in Vietnam's robusta, and weather conditions in important arabica-producing regions. Arabica prices in New York saw significant gains, while robusta also recorded increases, despite a correction observed at the end of the week. The difference between arabica and conilon in Brazil decreased, signaling a possible structural change in the coffee market.

Analysts highlight uncertainty regarding the market's future, despite strong fundamentals. Eduardo Carvalhaes emphasizes the climate challenges faced by significant producer regions, underscoring the lack of stocks and the impacts of the pandemic and high interest rates in the sector. Marcus Magalhães notes the readjustment in the domestic market and the sustenance of prices in the medium term, along with a focus on geopolitical impacts and low global stock levels. The current scenario demands caution, even amid recent highs.

Celso Vegro, a researcher at IEA, highlights the rupture of the historical balance between arabica and conilon, warning of speculation risks and the challenges faced by coffee growers and cooperatives. He emphasizes the market's unpredictability and the need to remain vigilant in the face of changes. The coffee market is undergoing a transformation, and participants must be prepared to address the challenges and opportunities that arise.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas