Coffee Market Suffers Significant Depreciation Amid Supply Pressure and Stock Recovery

Wednesday was marked by a significant depreciation in coffee prices on the international market, with declines exceeding 3% in both New York and London due to supply pressure. In the Arabica market, contracts for September 2024 saw a drop of 795 points, trading at 231.15 cents/lbp, while December 2024 contracts fell 740 points to 230.10 cents/lbp. Similarly, contracts for March 2025 and May 2025 also experienced substantial declines. In London, Robusta for September 2024 fell by $154 per ton, reflecting a trend of negative price adjustments for future contracts.

Analysts indicate that the lack of new market fundamentals, along with the good progress of the Brazilian harvest, continues to exert pressure on prices. Dry weather and high temperatures in Brazil are accelerating the harvest, but there are still uncertainties about the total yield. This rapid progress in harvesting, while positive for productivity, has raised doubts about the quality and quantity of the coffee to be produced, negatively influencing market sentiment and contributing to the recent price decline.

Moreover, the recovery of ICE coffee stocks to historically higher levels has been a negative factor for prices. ICE-monitored Robusta coffee stocks reached a one-year high, while Arabica stocks rose to an eighteen-month high. In Brazil, the physical market also reflected this depreciation trend, with price drops in major trading regions such as Poços de Caldas/MG and Machado/MG. This dynamic highlights the influence of supply conditions and global stocks on coffee price behavior.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas