Coffee on the Rise: Prices Climb on Concerns Over Brazilian Harvest and Tight Supply

The international coffee market closed Wednesday (30th) with a rebound in prices after a day of volatility. The main driver behind the upward movement was concern over tighter supply, fueled by estimates of a smaller Brazilian harvest — the world’s largest coffee producer. This scenario supported gains for both arabica and robusta on global exchanges, with the September and December contracts showing the largest increases of the day. The price action also reflects technical investor behavior, amid ongoing scrutiny of the supply-demand balance.

According to analyst Lúcio Dias, the short term in the coffee market will be marked by technical swings, price volatility, and strong influence from expectations regarding the incoming 2025 Brazilian crop. While the harvest is expected to bring some balance to the market, uncertainty about the quality and volume of the next crop continues to drive upward pressure. This adds to the speculative behavior on the exchanges, where each new weather report or production forecast has the potential to significantly impact prices.

Domestically, price reactions were more restrained, with minor shifts in arabica quotations. While Franca/SP saw a slight increase, Guaxupé/MG recorded a small decline. The Carvalhaes Office bulletin notes that, despite buyer interest, trading remains sluggish due to the low availability of 2024 crop coffee and producers’ resistance to current price offers. This disconnect between international market expectations and the physical reality in Brazil is likely to sustain a scenario of low liquidity and uncertainty in the coming days.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas