Coffee Prices Climb Amid Adverse Weather and Strong Demand, Domestically and Internationally

The international coffee market closed the April 24th session with strong gains, driven by two main factors: the weakening of the U.S. dollar and forecasts of limited rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. The lower expectation of rain directly affects crop productivity, which in turn tends to push prices higher due to a potentially reduced supply. Hedgepoint’s update on the 2025/26 crop confirms this scenario, highlighting a significant drop in Arabica production—from 42.6 to 39.6 million bags—due to low rainfall during the crop’s development.

This situation had a direct impact on international price quotations. Arabica coffee saw significant increases across all contracts, with gains exceeding 1,100 points, closing the May/25 contract at 408.00 cents/lbp. Robusta also posted substantial gains, ranging between $56 and $78 per ton, showing that the market is broadly reacting to a potential supply constraint. This movement highlights how weather conditions and dollar fluctuations directly affect futures contracts and investor risk perception.

In the domestic market, the rise in international prices led to stronger activity and appreciation in major producing regions. Cities such as Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Campos Gerais, Guaxupé, and Poços de Caldas recorded gains ranging from 1.4% to 4% in the prices of Arabica Type 6 and Pulped Natural coffee. However, a report from the Carvalhaes Office warns that, despite active buying interest for various coffee profiles, the volume of 2024 crop coffees still in producers’ hands is historically low. This indicates a supply-demand imbalance that may continue to support high prices in the short term. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Preocupação com a produtividade da safra brasileira faz café arábica... - Notícias Agrícolas