Coffee Prices Decline with Rising Stocks, but Climate Uncertainties Remain on the Radar

Coffee prices ended Wednesday (12) with moderate losses on international exchanges, reflecting the increase in ICE-monitored stocks. The rise in both arabica and robusta inventories eased short-term supply concerns, putting downward pressure on prices. However, weather conditions in Brazil remain a key concern, with persistent dry weather and below-average rainfall in major producing regions. If this scenario continues, experts warn of significant risks to the 2026 crop’s productivity, particularly due to potential soil moisture deterioration and impacts on floral buds.

Despite price declines, market uncertainty over global production continues to provide some support. Reports indicate reduced crops in Brazil, especially for arabica, due to adverse weather impacts. Additionally, Vietnam is facing challenges with excessive rainfall, making it difficult to dry and properly store robusta beans. These factors contribute to the perception of lower global availability in the medium term, which could limit further price drops in the futures market despite current pressure from rising stocks.

In the domestic market, producer resistance to selling at lower prices has helped maintain relative stability, even as industry and exporters need to buy. The start of the robusta harvest in April could create expectations of selling pressure, but a significant portion of production is already committed under prior contracts. Physical arabica prices fell in key producing regions, including Guaxupé/MG (-1.93%), Franca/SP (-1.89%), and Poços de Caldas/MG (-0.39%), while the Pulped Natural variety also saw declines in Campos Gerais/MG (-1.89%) and Varginha/MG (-1.85%). The market remains cautious, with producers waiting for better conditions before making further sales. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Preços do café seguem pressionados por oferta limitada, mas encerram sessão... - Notícias Agrícolas