Coffee Reaches $4/lb Amid Climate Concerns and Low Stocks

The coffee market continued its strong upward trend this Carnival Tuesday, driven mainly by concerns over the Brazilian arabica crop. The lack of rainfall in Minas Gerais, during the critical grain-filling period, is raising uncertainties about the production potential of the 2025/26 harvest, supporting the bullish momentum. This scenario pushed the March/25 contract to close at 402.75 cents per pound, a 2.56% increase. In the London market, robusta followed the upward trend, with the May/25 contract trading at $5,627 per ton.

In addition to climate factors, the decline in global coffee stocks has been a key driver of price support. Last Friday, ICE-monitored robusta stocks hit a two-month low, totaling 4,247 lots. The limited availability of beans reinforces the perception of tight supply, encouraging further upward price adjustments. With the combination of unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and shrinking stocks, the market remains attentive to future developments, especially given the strong global demand.

For arabica, stock levels are also under pressure. On February 18, they reached their lowest level in nine and a half months, at 758,514 bags. However, a partial recovery has occurred in recent days, with stocks rising to 809,128 bags last Thursday, marking a one-week high. Despite this slight replenishment, the market continues to price in a restricted supply scenario, which may keep prices elevated in the short and medium term. Volatility is expected to remain high, with investors closely monitoring weather forecasts and demand trends in major consuming markets. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Clima no Brasil preocupa mercado e café chega a US$4 por libra-peso em NY - Notícias Agrícolas