Consumer Confidence Drops in the U.S., Driving Coffee Prices Down on International Exchanges

The international coffee market faced a sharp downturn on Tuesday, reversing previous gains. The main pressure came from the drop in U.S. consumer confidence, which hit its lowest level in nearly five years. This indicator raised concerns about a potential slowdown in consumption, particularly for non-essential goods like premium coffee. The news of rising arabica inventories monitored by ICE — now at their highest level in two and a half months — reinforced bearish sentiment, triggering significant declines in both arabica and robusta futures contracts.

Despite the downward movement, analysts like Jack Scoville still see positive fundamentals for coffee, mainly due to expectations of consistent demand and limited supply from Brazil. This outlook is supported by data from Cepea, which highlights Brazilian producers’ concerns about the quality of the 2025/26 crop. The concentrated rainfall in February and March was insufficient to ensure proper bean development, particularly for the more highly valued screen sizes. In other words, even with temporarily higher inventories, uncertainty about the next harvest may once again put upward pressure on prices in the medium term.

In the domestic market, prices followed the international exchanges, with widespread drops in major trading regions in Minas Gerais. Even with buyers interested in various coffee grades, the limited availability of 2024 crop lots and producers’ reluctance to sell at current price levels are curbing liquidity. The price drops in cities such as Varginha, Campos Gerais, and Guaxupé reflect this tension between restricted supply and efforts to adjust prices to global levels. Caution prevails, with market players closely monitoring economic and weather developments that are expected to continue shaping market behavior in the coming weeks.

Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Preços do café fecham sessão desta 3ª feira (29) com queda de mais de 2% nas... - Notícias Agrícolas