Diverging Weather Outlook Boosts Arabica and Pressures Robusta in the International Market

The international coffee market continued to show divergent trends this Monday (28), with Arabica maintaining strong gains while Robusta declined. Arabica futures reached the $4/lbp mark in the near-term contracts, driven by growing concerns over the quality of the Brazilian crop, especially due to irregular rainfall. According to Cepea, these weather conditions have hindered the bean-filling stage, and the grains have yet to reach the expected size — particularly the more valuable screen sizes (17/18). With the harvest approaching in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest producing region, concerns about yield and quality continue to push prices higher.

Rabobank forecasts reinforce the challenging outlook for Arabica, projecting a 13.6% drop in Brazil’s 2025/26 crop due to drought during the flowering period. The updated estimate now points to a production of 38.1 million bags. On the other hand, Robusta remains more promising, with a record-high production of 24.7 million bags expected, supported by favorable weather in its growing areas. This contrast between the two varieties explains the opposing movements in futures prices.

Market data reflects high volatility in Arabica, with the May/25 contract down 105 points, while subsequent contracts posted significant gains — up to 595 points. Meanwhile, Robusta showed consistent declines across all maturities, falling between $15 and $24 per ton. The current scenario is marked by uncertainty, and market participants remain highly attentive to weather developments in Brazil, which will continue to be the key driver of prices in the coming weeks. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Café arábica volta atingir patamar dos US$ 4/lp nos futuros mais próximos... - Notícias Agrícolas