Global Coffee Market Challenges: Supply Shortages, Adverse Weather, and US Strikes Impact Prices

The coffee market is facing significant challenges, as reported by Bloomberg, with the potential delay in the EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation) insufficient to offset the global coffee shortage. Concerns about droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, the leading coffee producers, are heightening the possibility of a deficit in the 2024/25 season. Carlos Santana Jr., commercial director of Ecom Group, warns that the market needs to focus on the supply and demand balance, while uncertainty over weather conditions remains a critical factor for the sector.

In addition to climate-related issues, a strike by port workers on the US East Coast has further complicated the supply chain. The disruption in the unloading of imported coffee containers in one of the world’s largest coffee-consuming markets has increased the pressure on supply. This restricted supply scenario is reflected in falling future prices for arabica and robusta, with arabica dropping as much as 445 points in December 2024 contracts, and robusta recording losses of up to $190 per ton in November 2024 contracts.

Domestically, the Brazilian market is also feeling the impact of global uncertainties, with modest price movements in key coffee-producing regions. Arabica Type 6 and Pulped Natural coffee in Poços de Caldas/MG saw declines of 1.36% and 1.28%, respectively. The Carvalhaes Office report emphasizes that while rains may help mitigate further damage, significant losses have already accumulated in the 2025 crop, further complicating the outlook for producers and traders alike.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas