Historically Low Stocks Drive Prices Up on International Exchanges

The international coffee market closed Tuesday (15th) with sharp gains, as futures contracts rose over 2% on both the New York and London exchanges. The main driver was growing concern over limited global supply. According to Vicente Zotti of Pine Agronegócios, Brazil is facing near-zero stocks of conilon and very tight supplies of arabica. The imbalance between production, exports, and domestic consumption reveals one of the tightest supply scenarios in recent history, increasing the risk of shortages and pushing prices upward.

Fundamental analysis suggests that price support is likely to continue, at least until the arrival of Brazil’s 2025 harvest. With global stocks at critical levels and Brazilian output constrained by climate and logistical challenges, the market is expected to remain volatile. In addition, speculative appetite remains strong, with investors reacting quickly to shifts in supply and demand. This reinforces short-term instability but also supports the likelihood of sustained high prices.

In Brazil’s physical market, prices mirrored the international rally, especially for arabica type 6 and pulped natural beans in key producing regions like Campos Gerais, Franca, and Guaxupé. Despite the price increases, trading volume remains moderate as producers remain cautious about the ideal time to sell. This cautious stance reflects expectations of even higher prices, as the market continues to absorb the impact of dwindling coffee availability. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Fundamentos do café seguem resilientes e devem sustentar os preços futuros... - Notícias Agrícolas