Pressão Climática e Câmbio Desfavorável Agravam Quedas no Mercado de Café

International coffee prices extended their downward trend on Wednesday (June 25), with both arabica and robusta experiencing sharp losses on the New York and London exchanges. The drop was driven largely by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar — a shift that favors Brazilian exports and increases global supply pressure. At the same time, the ongoing harvest of Brazil’s 2025/26 crop continues to weigh on futures prices, as traders monitor the impact of recent weather. While light frost was reported in parts of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, damage assessments remain uncertain and were not enough to reverse the market’s bearish sentiment.

On the global front, Rabobank released a report projecting a 0.5% decline in worldwide coffee demand for 2025, largely due to higher consumer prices. The bank expects the market, which saw a small deficit in the 2024/25 season, to shift into a surplus of 1.4 million bags by 2025/26. This forecast suggests a potential period of price stabilization, despite historically low inventory levels in key producing countries. Coupled with improving production prospects, this outlook has led to caution among buyers and profit-taking by speculative funds.

In Brazil’s domestic market, prices followed the international downtrend, with significant losses across major producing regions. Type 6 arabica dropped over 5% in parts of southern Minas Gerais, while peeled cherry coffee also saw notable declines in Varginha and Guaxupé. Nevertheless, the Carvalhaes Office reported a growing number of deals involving the new 2025/26 crop, indicating that producers are making strategic moves despite price pressure. With arabica harvests progressing steadily and strong liquidity in the conilon market, the physical coffee market is gradually adjusting to new price references while awaiting potential shifts in both weather and global economic conditions.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas