Robusta Recovers While Arabica Faces Pressure

The international coffee market ended the week with a price rebound, especially for robusta, which saw a significant 3.22% increase in the July/25 contract. This upward movement was driven by tight supply, particularly from Vietnam, whose exports dropped 15.3% in the first quarter of 2024. Analysts like Jack Scoville note that despite high prices, global supply remains limited, supporting firm quotations even as Brazil’s harvest begins.

The shortage scenario is also being confirmed by major market players. Trishul Mandana from Volcafe points out that Brazil’s 24/25 crop shows signs of tightening, which could quickly lead to the depletion of ICE-certified arabica stocks. This creates an environment of uncertainty and potential instability in the coming months, as price differentials reveal real pressure on the availability of quality physical coffee amid ongoing strong demand.

In Brazil’s domestic market, however, coffee prices declined on Friday, reflecting producers’ resistance to selling the 2024 crop at current levels. Despite buyer interest, the available volume is historically low, limiting transactions and keeping liquidity tight. Price drops in key producing regions reveal a disconnect between the physical market and the speculative international environment, highlighting the challenges industry players face in balancing supply, demand, and pricing in a volatile scenario.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas