Volatility Persists and Coffee Prices Decline Amid Higher Crop Estimates and Currency Pressure

The coffee market ended Wednesday (07) on a downward trend, following another day marked by high volatility. Futures contracts came under increased pressure after Conab released its 2025 Brazilian crop forecast, projecting a harvest of 55.7 million bags — a 2.7% increase over the previous year. Additionally, the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar encouraged exports, which contributed to sharp declines in arabica prices on the New York Stock Exchange across all contracts.

External factors also weighed on the market, especially the strengthening of exports from Vietnam and Uganda, which are boosting global robusta stockpiles. Bloomberg noted that the improved supply outlook — particularly for cheaper beans — is being closely assessed by traders and has contributed to heightened volatility. Robusta saw a slight gain in the nearest contract but declined across other maturities on the London Exchange, reflecting an unstable balance between growing supply and adjusted demand.

In the domestic market, prices continued to fall in line with international trends. Despite buyer interest, the volume of 2024 crop coffee still held by producers remains historically low, and many remain cautious given current offers. Key trading regions such as Varginha, Franca, and Guaxupé recorded declines in the prices of Arabica Type 6, while the Pulped Natural variety also saw devaluations. The market remains sluggish, with producers reluctant to sell amid global price uncertainty.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas