Arabica Rebounds and Volatility Marks the Coffee Market Amid Decline in Brazilian Exports

The coffee market experienced a day of sharp fluctuations, closing Thursday (15th) with mixed movements across international exchanges. Arabica saw a significant recovery after three weeks of declines, driven by concerns over reduced Brazilian exports. Data from Cecafé revealed a 28% drop in Brazil’s green coffee exports in April compared to the same period last year. This relative scarcity of supply prompted a positive reaction in the market, reflected in the strong appreciation of futures contracts in New York.

Volatility remains a defining feature of the market, according to Heberson Sastre of Minasul, due to the low volume of open contracts on the New York Stock Exchange. This means even small movements have caused large price swings. Additionally, the fundamentals remain unchanged: limited supply, low inventories, challenging weather conditions, and global demand that remains firm but pressured by economic uncertainty. With the arrival of the new harvest, price behavior is expected to be similar to last year.

In the domestic market, around 80% of producers in Minasul’s coverage area have already begun harvesting, with full-scale activity expected by mid-June. The quality of the crop, especially in southern Minas Gerais, is expected to yield screen sizes 17 and 18 in the range of 20% to 30%. The appreciation of arabica on the exchanges was immediately reflected in domestic prices, with increases ranging from 2.4% to 3.7% in key producing regions. Robusta also recorded significant gains, especially in Espírito Santo do Pinhal/SP, with a 7.69% increase, indicating a momentary optimism in the national market.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas