Coffee Market Declines: Weather in Brazil and Supply Projections Impact Prices

The coffee market started the week on a downturn, reflecting the influence of favorable weather forecasts for Brazil. The prospect of rainfall in key producing regions has eased concerns about the impact of prolonged drought, leading to a depreciation in arabica and robusta futures contracts on international exchanges. While recent precipitation has brought some relief, experts warn that the damage to the 2025 crop and plant development for 2026 is already irreversible. The Rabobank report reinforces this concern by projecting a significant reduction in Brazil’s arabica production for 2025/26 due to adverse weather conditions recorded in recent months.

In the global market, robusta also faced declines, pressured by the projected increase in supply from major producing countries. Estimates from Marex Solutions indicate significant growth in production from both Vietnam and Brazil, which could contribute to greater price stability in the medium term. However, global stock levels remain low, maintaining a supportive bias for the market. Price volatility continues to be a reality, with weather conditions and supply expectations playing a crucial role in determining future trends.

In the Brazilian domestic market, trading remains slow, with sellers reluctant to accept buyers’ price offers. The Carvalhaes Office bulletin indicates that despite existing demand for different coffee grades, business transactions remain below the necessary levels to meet both domestic consumption and exports. Prices varied by region, with arabica type 6 showing slight gains and losses depending on the location, while peeled cherry coffee also experienced fluctuations. Seller resistance and uncertainty about the upcoming harvest suggest that the physical market may remain stagnant in the coming weeks. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Entrada da safra brasileira de café deve estabilizar a volatilidade do... - Notícias Agrícolas