Smaller Harvest and Limited Stocks Boost Arabica While Robusta Decline on the Exchanges

The international coffee market closed Friday’s (April 25) session mixed, with arabica posting moderate gains and robusta showing slight declines. Arabica’s appreciation was driven by concerns over the Brazilian crop, particularly in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, where bean quality — especially size — is falling short of expectations due to irregular rainfall earlier in the year. Reports from Cepea and Rabobank confirm this scenario of tighter supply for arabica, increasing upward pressure on prices, while robusta, with projections of a record harvest, experienced slight negative adjustments.

Rabobank’s analysis reinforces concerns about arabica, forecasting a significant 13.6% drop in production compared to the previous crop year. In contrast, robusta is expected to achieve record productivity, growing by 7.3%, despite climatic challenges in some regions such as Rondônia. This contrast between the supply of the two coffee types explains the divergent movement on the exchanges: while arabica rose with gains between 25 and 200 points across major contracts, robusta posted slight declines ranging from $2 to $24 per ton.

In the domestic market, the rise in international arabica prices quickly reflected in higher prices paid to producers. Traditional coffee-producing cities such as Machado, Campos Gerais, and Guaxupé registered significant price increases for both type 6 coffee and pulped natural (cereja descascado) beans. This movement suggests that, even with limited stock availability, demand remains strong, driven by the expectation of reduced future supply. The current scenario indicates a market on high alert, with buyers willing to pay more to secure quality coffee amid climatic and logistical uncertainties. Fonte: Noticias Agrícolas Estimativa de menor safra/25 de café no Brasil assegura ganhos ao arábica no... - Notícias Agrícolas